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The New Year and Q1 reset
From Boxing Day to the end of Q1: returns, the January sale, reconciling peak and planning the quarter.
THE SHORT ANSWER
Get returns ready, sell on purpose, reconcile peak, review it against your own numbers, then plan Q1. The weeks after Christmas are where the rush hides its mistakes.
IN SHORT
- The US, UK and Australia do not share a January. Boxing Day is a public holiday in the UK and Australia but not in the US, and January is summer in Australia. One plan with market-specific dates beats one plan applied to all three.
- The first job after peak is reconciling, not selling: returns, refunds, stock and gift cards that were hidden by the rush.
- A discount only helps if the order still earns something. The discount break-even calculator takes your own numbers and says how many extra orders a discount needs.
- This page has no benchmark of ours. The review in stage four compares you with your own earlier numbers.
Stage 1: get returns ready
Before December 26, while you are still busy.
- Decide who handles returns and refunds in each time zone for the days after Christmas, including public holidays.
- Check the returns policy states the window, who pays return postage and how refunds are made, in each market.
- For UK customers, note that sellers are told to say customers can cancel up to 14 days after delivery. GOV.UK: online and distance selling
- Make sure return locations, labels and the warehouse receiving process are ready for volume.
- Prepare the customer message for late parcels and for return instructions, so support is not writing them one at a time.
Stage 2: run the post-Christmas sale on purpose
Not every market or product wants one.
- Decide market by market: Boxing Day sales are a UK and Australian habit, December 26 is an ordinary US day. Look at your own last year before choosing.
- Pick products by what they earn after the discount and after returns, not by what is overstocked alone.
- Run the numbers in the discount break-even calculator before you set the percentage.
- Where you show a was-price, follow the price-claim guidance of the regulator in each market, and keep a record of the earlier price.
- Test the discount stacking rules: codes, automatic discounts and gift cards together on a phone.
- Set an end date, and the reversal of the prices, as part of the plan.
Stage 3: reconcile peak in early January
The rush hides small errors. Find them while they are small.
- Reconcile orders, refunds and payouts between the store, the payment provider and the accounting system.
- Count stock, and compare it with the store, for the products that sold fastest.
- List the gift cards and discount codes that are still open, and decide which to end.
- Group support tickets by cause, not by date, so one cause shows up as one number.
- Fix anything that produced wrong orders, double charges or missed cut-off dates before the next sale.
Stage 4: review it against your own numbers
No industry average; the comparison is with you.
- Compare orders, conversion, order value and returns with the same period last year and with the weeks before peak, per market.
- Note which pages and apps slowed under load, and which checkout step lost the most people on a phone.
- Write down what broke and who owned it, while it is fresh.
- Separate what was one-off (a late carrier) from what will happen again (a slow page).
Stage 5: plan Q1
The code freeze ends. Do not fill the quarter at once.
- Choose the few fixes from stage four that the payback calculator says repay themselves.
- Plan the next dated events per market, such as Mother’s Day, which falls on different dates in the UK, US and Australia.
- Ask your accountant which year-end applies: the UK tax year ends April 5 (GOV.UK) and the Australian financial year ends June 30.
- Remove apps and scripts that did nothing for peak, and test the speed again.
- Book a store audit if you cannot tell which fix comes first.
One plan or one per market?
The honest answer depends on how different your markets are.
| One shared plan | A plan per marketUSUALLY THIS | |
|---|---|---|
| Right when | One market, or markets with the same dates and rules | US, UK and Australia together |
| Main risk | A Boxing Day plan applied to a market where it is an ordinary day | More to keep in step |
| Start with | The dates and holidays | Each market’s own last year |
Read the guides
The blog posts behind each stage, for when you want the reasoning.
How do you handle the January returns surge?
Returns surge planning for January
The January surge is a capacity problem with a cash problem attached. Both are forecastable from what you shipped in November, and neither is solved by the returns app somebody wants to buy in December.
Choosing a returns platform, and when Shopify is enough
Shopify’s built-in returns do more than most stores realize. Three gaps justify buying a platform, and here is the arithmetic that tells you when.
Returns data is product data
A return is a customer telling you what was wrong with a specific variant, at their own expense. Most stores file that under logistics and never let it reach the people who buy and describe the products.
What is your post-peak data telling you?
Post-peak: what your data is telling you in December
Peak data is the least representative data you will collect all year, and most of the conclusions drawn from it in January do not survive February.
After the first big day: reading the numbers correctly
On the Saturday morning there are two analyses available and only one of them is due. Read what broke and act on it; leave every conclusion about channels, cohorts and conversion until the refunds have landed.
Cyber Week is over. The retention window is open
Post-BFCM retention is decided by the parcel, the returns process and the timing of the second contact: not by the discount you send in December.
What should Q1 hold?
The quiet week: the maintenance worth doing now
A slow week is the cheapest time to find out what is about to break. Here is the short list, including one Shopify deadline that lands in March.
Planning a Shopify roadmap you can actually deliver
Most ecommerce roadmaps are a list of things somebody wanted. This is how to build one that survives contact with a trading year.
Half-year review: the metrics worth reporting upward
Six to eight numbers, each with its definition written next to it and a decision attached. Most ecommerce board packs are twenty charts and no decisions.
Questions about the New Year reset
When should a Shopify store start planning for Boxing Day and January sales?
Before the peak itself ends: the returns and staffing decisions for the days after Christmas have to be made while you are busiest. Treat stage one as part of your holiday plan, not something for later.
Do UK customers have a right to cancel an order bought online?
Yes. GOV.UK tells sellers to tell customers they can cancel an order up to 14 days after it is delivered, and that if you do not tell them the period is extended to 12 months. An order delivered just before Christmas can therefore come back well into January. Check the current wording on GOV.UK before you publish a returns policy; this is not legal advice.
Is Boxing Day a sales day in the US as well?
Boxing Day is a public holiday in the UK and Australia, so sales around it are a local habit in those markets. In the US, December 26 is an ordinary day. Check your own traffic and order dates from last year before deciding to run it in each market.
How should I price a post-Christmas sale?
Start from what the order earns after the discount, not from a target percentage. The discount break-even calculator uses your own margin and returns to show how many extra orders a given discount has to bring. Where you show a was-price, check the price-claim guidance of the regulator in each market.
What is worth reviewing after Black Friday and Christmas?
Order and refund reconciliation, stock accuracy, shipping cut-off misses, support tickets by cause, checkout drop-off on phones, and any page that slowed under load. Compare each against your own previous period, not against an industry figure.
Do the tax-year dates affect an ecommerce store?
They can affect when your accountant wants numbers and when you plan larger spend. The US tax year usually follows the calendar year, the UK tax year runs from April 6 to April 5, and the Australian financial year ends on June 30. Ask your accountant which applies to your company.